The 2026 Oscar race for Best Director is already shaping up to be one of those wonderfully chaotic Hollywood showdowns. A year after Sean Baker’s win for Anora, the field is packed with big names.
There are also names of a few directors who seem overdue for their moment. Every filmmaker on this list has a unique style, their own storytelling rhythm, and a strong enough shot at taking home the gold. Some just happen to be riding slightly stronger waves.
8. Guillermo del Toro
Guillermo del Toro has always found poetry in the things that terrify everyone else to the core. He never gives us cheap thrills. He cares about the soul underneath the monsters he is showing. His version of Frankenstein leans fully into that. Every frame looks handcrafted, almost like he painted it himself before rolling the camera.
Jacob Elordi shows up as the creature with a performance that’s both furious and heartbreakingly soft. He stomps around with all this bottled-up pain, but still manages to let kindness show.
And of course, the Academy already knows del Toro can deliver. He has a Best Director win for The Shape of Water sitting on his shelf. Still, prediction lists for 2026 keep him slightly lower than expected. Maybe it’s because of the wave of new contenders. Maybe it’s the timing.
But a moderate chance of winning in the case of del Toro is still a serious threat. He’s always just one beautifully strange film away from shaking up the whole race for good.
7. James Cameron
James Cameron is pretty much Hollywood’s resident king of giant, risky movies that somehow break every financial record in existence. He already has a Best Director win for Titanic, has two of the biggest movies ever made under his name, and now returns with Avatar: Fire and Ash, the next entry in his glowing blue juggernaut.
The funny thing is, blockbuster directors usually have to swim upstream for Best Director consideration. The Oscars tend to lean toward “prestige,” meaning smaller, intimate dramas instead of films where the world explodes beautifully in IMAX. Because of that, Cameron sits lower on most prediction lists even though the film is reportedly generating loud chatter. His genius in handling technology is never questioned. However, the category has historically preferred a bit of grounded storytelling over mega spectacle.
Still, Cameron has surprised the Academy before. The movie has to land hard. He could tilt the votes in his favor unexpectedly. But for that, he has to bring the emotional weight he keeps hinting at. He has been in this game too long. So now is not the time to dismiss him.
6. Chloé Zhao
The movie Nomadland won Chloé Zhao Best Director and Best Picture in the same year. So she can walk into the 2026 race with confidence. Her new film, Hamnet, has been hovering near the top of nearly every prediction list for months.
The film tells the story of the grief-shadowed world of William Shakespeare and his wife, Agnes. It focuses on the time after the death of their young son. Jessie Buckley’s performances linger in the mind. Paul Mescal’s take on Shakespeare seems to have turned into the internet’s new emotional meltdown machine. Only Zhao can make a movie feel devastatingly beautiful.
Repeat wins aren’t particularly common in Best Director, so the film needs to maintain consistent momentum throughout the season. But Zhao has that awards-season magnetism. A nomination feels extremely likely, and if Hamnet hits the right emotional chords with voters, she won’t just be in the race. She’ll be near the front.
5. Joachim Trier
Joachim Trier has never been a loud filmmaker. But his work always leaves you aching and heartbroken. His films are always melancholic in nature. He focuses mainly on love, memory, and all the ways life slips past everyone, while people overthink everything all the time. Sentimental Value, his latest movie, also deals exactly with that emotion.
The film has been named as a serious awards contender. Trier’s name has been showing up steadily on Best Director prediction lists recently. He isn’t as established in the Oscar winner conversation, though, as some of the others here. But the man is admired, acclaimed, and respected. That alone can beat the odds.
And the Academy has been siding with international and emotionally intricate storytelling in recent years. If the season keeps playing in his favor, Trier could easily be nominated to win the trophy. And from there, anything can happen.
4. Jafar Panahi
Jafar Panahi’s latest film, It Was Just an Accident, won the Palme d’Or at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival. This alone positions him firmly in Oscar-winning territory. Cannes winners often show up during awards season for major wins.
This director is usually associated with the International Feature category. This sometimes limits how high his name climbs in the Best Director race. It’s still harder for non-English films to win the race. Even with the Academy now being more global than ever, his chances might be slim.
However, in the last seven years, directors connected to Best International Feature nominees have been nominated for Best Director six times. So the odds aren’t as stacked against him as they once were.
With France submitting its film for International Feature, the visibility is huge. And truly, Panahi is the definition of “you never know.”When a filmmaker this respected enters the battleground, the voters often pay attention.
3. Park Chan-wook
Park Chan-wook has spent years being one of the coolest directors alive. His movies are always stylish and daring. His new film, No Other Choice, takes something as grim as unemployment and turns it into something unexpected. He presents the film as a dark comic character study. The movie explores masculinity, economic hardship, and the absurdities of modern capitalism.
The film is visually spotless. It has been beautifully made, and this movie makes people lean forward just to drink in the aesthetics. Prediction lists keep him near the lower half. But, hey, that’s also what makes him so dangerous.
2. Ryan Coogler
Ryan Coogler has been steadily climbing up the ladder. His Sinners seems to push him even further. The film has been buzzing since it was released. Coogler has been appearing on almost every major Best Director prediction list. And if he wins, he would become the first Black filmmaker ever to take home Best Director. He would also be only the seventh Black director to be nominated in the first place.
Sinners is being described as an ambitious blockbuster with many thematic layers that feel very personal. It is a tricky balance hardly anyone nails. Coogler pulls it off with an amazing vision that makes the film stand out in a crowded year. He could easily end up at the center of the race.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson
Paul Thomas Anderson has hovered around the Oscars for years now. With One Battle After Another, he might finally break that pattern. The film exploded out of the gate with rave reviews. It had a strong showing at the Gothams. This instantly put him at the top of most prediction lists.
He knows how to make his movie artistic and also mainstream at the same time. It’s the exact sweet spot the Academy loves to reward. The response has been loud and enthusiastic. The way everyone is talking about the movie is borderline euphoric. If that energy stretches through critics’ awards and the major guilds, Anderson’s long-awaited win might finally be within reach.
Nothing is locked until voters seal their ballots. But right now, he feels like the frontrunner. Everyone else is climbing; Anderson is surfing.
Which director do you think will take the Best Director Oscar home in 2026? Let us know in the comments.
